Por José Manuel Burgueño, Doctor en Ciencias de la Información.
Antes de que acabe el año -sostenía en septiembre la vicepresidenta del Gobierno y ministra de Economía, Nadia Calviño- recuperaremos el nivel de actividad económica diaria y el empleo previo a la pandemia”, siendo el primer trimestre de 2022 “el primero con un nivel de actividad económica superior a la registrada en el primer trimestre de 2019”. Lo mantenía incluso después de que varios organismos nacionales e internacionales habían rebajado considerablemente sus previsiones de crecimiento para España. En diciembre, el grueso de los analistas ya había dejado solo al Gobierno con su optimista expectativa de crecer un 6,5% (tamizada ya por el baño de realidad desde su inicial 9,8% que a finales de 2020 preveía para 2021): todos habían rebajado sus previsiones y prácticamente nadie apostaba por más de un 5%.
Hace un año íbamos a liderar el crecimiento económico de la Unión Europea en 2021 y finalmente somos el país que más lejos está de su nivel de producción previo a la crisis. “España va a la zaga de sus homólogos en la recuperación -señala el banco británico Barclays-: en el tercer trimestre de 2021, la economía española estaba todavía 6,5 puntos porcentuales por debajo de su nivel precrisis, mientras que el resto de la zona euro ha recuperado ampliamente sus niveles de 2019”.
Así, según las últimas estimaciones de la Comisión Europea de noviembre, España habría pasado de ser la economía de la Eurozona con mayor vigor en su crecimiento a ocupar el puesto 17. Por ejemplo, las previsiones para Irlanda pasaban de un escenario con un crecimiento del 4,6% en primavera, a uno en el que se esperaba que la economía del país se expandiera casi un 15%. También se revisaron al alza los crecimientos de otros países incluso con caídas de su PIB bastante mayores que la de España durante la crisis, cuyas economías crecerían mucho más que la española en 2021, como es el caso de Croacia (8,1%), Italia (6,1%) o Estonia (9%). La OCDE, por su parte, situaba en mayo a nuestra en economía en el puesto 41 de los países que analiza en cuanto al tiempo que necesitaría para recuperar el PIB per cápita precovid, con más de tres años y medio, por detrás de casi todas las economías europeas.
Fuente: https://www.computing.es/
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